Investment Outlook

Look beyond the clouds

Due to the Covid-19 virus outbreak, the short-term economic outlook is clouded. Therefore, in this Investment Outlook, our focus is not only on the second half of 2020. We also look at what's ahead in the longer term. What will the investment world look like once the clouds start to lift?

Look beyond the clouds

The economy is suffering from unprecedented lockdowns installed to fight the Covid-19 virus. Looking at the coming months, there is a lot of uncertainty, as it remains unclear to what extent the economy can be reopened without increasing medical risks. For the longer term, it is already clear that there will be lasting consequences of the current pandemic.

Economy: five reasons why the recovery will take time

With restrictions on economic activity starting to be lifted, optimism is in the air. We are sceptical about the idea of a durable, strong recovery taking shape quickly. A bounce in activity around the middle of this year will most likely be followed by renewed weakness. We set out five reasons to expect the economy to take time to recover.
Macro-economisch: beleggingsstrategie ABN AMRO MeesPierson

Equities: bears versus bulls

The Covid-19 crisis caused equity prices to drop by 30 to 40% in less than a month. Fortunately, central banks were quick to step in. Monetary stimulus measures fuelled a strong market rebound. Where will markets go from here? Let’s have a look at the arguments used by investors leaning towards a pessimistic view, the ‘bears’, and their optimistic counterparts, the ‘bulls’.
Obligaties: beleggingsstrategie ABN AMRO MeesPierson

Bonds: the sun will shine on credits again

Central bank policy measures, taken in response to the coronavirus, have decimated core government bond yields. In the strong risk-off reaction we have seen recently in markets, credit spreads also widened considerably. The latter currently present an opportunity for investors, especially those bonds that are part of the open-ended quantitative easing programme of the ECB.
Aandelen: Belegingsstrategie ABN AMRO MeesPierson

Equity thematic update: coronavirus as an accelerator of change

Investors can profit from longer-term themes experiencing accelerating adoption owing to covid-19. We see opportunities in areas such as online shopping, digital payments, home entertainment and technology that enables home working, such as cloud computing and cyber-security.
Valuta

Currencies: longer-term dollar outlook is deteriorating

So far this year, the US dollar has risen versus major currencies and even more versus a broad basket of currencies. Do we expect this trend to continue? In the near-term (up to 3 months) yes, in the longer-term no. We expect a lower dollar in the longer term.
Grondstoffen

Commodities: caution advised despite expected recovery

The prices of almost all commodities came under severe pressure in the first months of this year. Only the price of gold has risen slightly. Although commodity prices may recover as the economy picks up, we are cautious. Commodity inventories have risen, which means that upward price potential is limited.
Portefeuille Allocatie: belegingsstrategie ABN AMRO MeesPierson

Asset Allocation: lessons from history

We have never experienced such a global lockdown of economic activities, much as we have not previously seen such large support from fiscal and monetary policies. Nonetheless, there are some common observations possible, including behaviour in bear markets and what happens before and after a trough in markets.